担保失灵与保证保险：制度演化视野下的微距观察

本文对“担保失灵”背景下保险机构开展贷款保证保险业务的一个案例进行了微距观察,基于银保双方权责承担的实际进行了博弈演进分析,提出了银保可重复合作博弈的满足条件,探讨了有关市场主体可选择的定位思路。     

延伸售后保证服务对电子产品供应链决策的影响分析

文章研究了延伸售后保证服务对电子产品供应链决策的影响,分析了三种不同"延伸售后保证服务"提供模式的最优决策问题,结果表明:当服务成本相同时,分散决策结构下,零售商提供延伸售后保证服务,能够降低零售价格和延伸售后保证服务价格,可以获得较高的经济效益与社会效益;无论是分散决策还是集中决策,延伸售后保证敏感系数对不同模式最优决策的影响是一致的,零售价格与批发价格是其增函数,供应链各成员的利润、延伸售后保证服务价格是其减函数;当集中决策时,无论是制造商还是零售商提供"延伸售后保证服务",集中决策有较低的零售价格,和更高的"延伸售后保证服务"价格,延伸售后服务成为系统利润增加的保证。     

The Ethical Mutual Fund Performance Debate: New Evidence from Canada

Although the academic interest in ethical mutual fund performance has developed steadily, the evidence to date is mainly sample-specific. To tackle this critique, new research should extend to unexplored countries. Using this as a motivation, we examine the performance and risk sensitivities of Canadian ethical mutual funds vis-à-vis their conventional peers. In order to overcome the methodological deficiencies most prior papers suffered from, we use performance measurement approaches in the spirit of Carhart (1997, Journal of Finance 52(1): 57–82) and Ferson and Schadt (1996, Journal of Finance 51(2): 425–461). In doing so, we investigate the aggregated performance and investment style of ethical and conventional mutual funds and allow for time variation in the funds’ systematic risk. Our␣Canadian evidence supports the conjecture that any␣performance differential between ethical mutual funds and their conventional peers is statistically insignificant.      

Wildlife viewing: The impact of money-back guarantees

Wildlife sightings are not always guaranteed. To address this risk, tour operators often offer a money-back guarantee as a refund mechanism. However, studies have overlooked the influences of such refund mechanisms on tourists' tour participation decisions and tourism revenue. We conducted choice experiments to examine the impact of such mechanisms using a case of Amami rabbit tourism in Japan. We found that the guarantee significantly influences the tourists’ decision-making and tour revenue. In particular, we found that the expected tourist participation rate and tour guide revenue vary drastically depending on the probability of the rabbit encounter. The maximum expected revenue from the tour with a 90% chance was about 20 times larger than that with a 10% chance. This indicates that conserving wildlife to maintain the sighting probability raises tour benefits, creating a win-win situation by balancing conservation and tourism development.     

Jensen's alpha and the market‐timing puzzle

Theory predicts that market‐timing activities bias Jensen's alpha (JA). However, empirical studies have failed to find consistent evidence of this bias. We tackle this puzzle in a nested model analysis and show that the bias contains an exogenous market component that is unrelated to market‐timing skill. In a comprehensive empirical analysis of US mutual funds, we find that the timing‐induced bias in JA is mainly driven by this market component, which is uncorrelated with measured timing activities. Measures of total performance that allow for timing activities are virtually identical to JA, even if timing activities are present in the evaluated fund. Hence, we conclude that JA is a sufficient measure of total performance.     

林业收储在林权抵押贷款信用风险控制中作用研究

研究采用担保理论,通过实地考察福建省林业收储运作情况获取资料,基于控制林权抵押贷款信用风险的视角研究林业收储的作用;指出林权是林权抵押贷款关键的信用风险因素,但是,存在安全性与流动性风险等问题;介绍了林业收储运作流程并讨论了林业收储控制林权抵押贷款信用风险的路径,认为林业收储降低了抵押林权的真实性与变现性风险;指出林业收储存在过于依赖财政拨款、规模较小与缺乏合理的保值增值机制等局限性,林业收储无法从根本上化解林权抵押贷款中尚存在的抵押林权的安全性、流动性等风险;提出引入社会资本,建立政府财政收购机制,优化林权抵押贷款生态环境等建议。     

New development: Can ‘public’ market-based solutions restore the banking system? The case of non-performing loans (NPLs)

The authors discuss how policy-makers could use new market-based solutions to dismantle NPLs. They examine viable solutions for NPLs and then study the Italian State Guarantee Scheme for NPL Securitization (GACS) to highlight how public actors could efficiently use public resources to solve the NPL problem.     

Pairwise epistemic conditions for Nash equilibrium

We introduce a framework for modeling pairwise interactive beliefs and provide an epistemic foundation for Nash equilibrium in terms of pairwise epistemic conditions locally imposed on only some pairs of players. Our main result considerably weakens not only the standard sufficient conditions by Aumann and Brandenburger (1995), but also the subsequent generalization by Barelli (2009). Surprisingly, our conditions do not require nor imply mutual belief in rationality.     

When does a service guarantee work? The roles of the popularity of service guarantees and firm reputation

Despite substantial research on service guarantees in the literature, little study has examined how the popularity of service guarantees (SG) in a particular industry affects the effectiveness of SGs. Through four studies, the authors demonstrate an interactive effect between the market-level factor (the popularity of SGs) and the firm-level factor (firm reputation) in affecting consumer's responses to a travel agency's actions in (not) offering an SG. When offering SGs is popular in a given market, consumers perceive a loss from the absence of SGs, and a high-reputation agency will outperform a low-reputation agency in consumer service evaluation when neither agencies offer SGs. However, if both agencies provide guarantees, the SG offered by the high-reputation agency does not necessarily lead to greater service evaluation than that offered by the low-reputation agency. The results reverse when offering SGs is rare in the market, as consumers perceive a gain from the presence of SGs.     

创新住房保障模式 解决“夹心层”住房问题

为解决现有住房保障模式下存在的“夹心层”住房问题,本文从住房保障对象识别、保障方式选择、住房补贴标准确定、补贴金额计算等方面构建了一种新型的住房保障模式,该模式以货币补贴替代目前的实物补贴,实现了“收入越高补贴越少”的反向递减补贴效果,实现了住房保障的垂直公平,解决了现有模式下的“夹心层”问题,并进行了实证分析。